China faces significant challenges to supply its urban-rural development with energy while reducing carbon_x000D_
emissions. Residential consumption, which is the second-most important source of carbon emissions following_x000D_
industry, has gradually been receiving attention. However, there are fewer studies that systematically investigate_x000D_
rural and urban residential emissions separately, and the future of residential emissions is uncertain given_x000D_
changes in the economic and social drivers. We used 20 years of energy consumption data from 30 provinces in_x000D_
China and panel regression models to analyze how urban and rural carbon emissions have changed over time and_x000D_
space. We then simulated three future scenarios of residential carbon emissions based on the framework of_x000D_
Shared Socioeconomic pathways. We conclude that there has been considerable growth in per capita rural_x000D_
emissions, largely due to population increases, especially during the periods 2004–2012 and 2012–2018. Overall_x000D_
emissions have declined though, likely due to an adjustment of energy intensity. Both rural and urban emissions_x000D_
are expected to decline in the future, but there is variation in where and how rural and urban emissions may_x000D_
change under the three development scenarios.

Si Wu
China University of Geosciences

---

 
ID Abstract: 727