1161 | 536 | COVID-19 and uncertainty in Italy. Exposure to high mortality and fertility, the case study on the city of Bergamo

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on various aspects of daily life, including reproductive behavior. Women’s fertility dynamics have been particularly affected, with many facing uncertainties and disruptions to their plans for having a child(ren)._x000D_
However, it is important to note that the impact of the pandemic on fertility is multifaceted and varies between and within countries. In the academic debate, these variations in fertility dynamics can be attributed to several factors, including differences in government policies, cultural attitudes toward childbearing, and economic conditions. However few studies consider the role played by the perception of uncertainty (e.g. Guetto et al., 2022; Gatta et al., 2022). The goal of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature by studying the association between COVID-19, lockdowns, and exposure to death (two of the main sources of uncertainty) on the birth outcomes in Bergamo. We considered this city because it was one of the most impacted by the virus in the Western world. We used data from the national statistical agency to evaluate the relationship between the different components and birth outcomes, comparing the number of monthly births in the year before the pandemic and the second year of Covid-19. Preliminary results show that during the months of lockdown and high mortality, the number of conceptions decreases, and, conversely, during periods of re-opening and stabilization of deaths the number of conceptions increases. Our results seem to corroborate the argument that the perception of uncertainty has an important impact on the fertility dynamic, especially during a pandemic (and in general during catastrophic events).

Patrizio Lodetti
University of Florence

ID Abstract: 536

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